How China Should Respond to US Pressure Across Asia’s Maritime Flashpoints

The Biden administration’s “three seas linkage” plan aims to pressure Beijing across three key maritime flashpoints: the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea. This high-risk strategy could spark a new era of great power competition or plunge the region into chaos.

China’s maritime authorities have long been aware of Washington’s intentions to contain its naval expansion through diplomatic pressure and military posturing. The three seas linkage plan is a brazen attempt to create multiple fronts against China, testing its ability to respond coherently across different domains. “Multi-front operations are always the most difficult for any country to manage,” says Yue Shengsong, an associate professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University.

The East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea have long been contentious regions, with multiple nations staking claims on disputed territories and resources. The first island chain, stretching from the Kuril Islands to Borneo, forms a crucial boundary between China’s near seas and the open Pacific Ocean. Washington views this chain as a barrier to contain Chinese naval expansion, while Beijing sees it as an artificial divide that ignores historical and cultural connections between its coastal provinces.

China’s responses to US pressure will be shaped by its strategic priorities and diplomatic relationships with neighboring nations. To build credible deterrence and protect its maritime rights, China must strengthen coordination among maritime authorities. Yue Shengsong recommends establishing cross-departmental mechanisms to ensure unified responses across the diplomatic, military, law enforcement, legal, and communications domains.

China’s ability to respond effectively will also depend on its internal governance structure and decision-making processes. Beijing has made progress in streamlining its maritime authorities and coordinating operations between different agencies. However, the complexity of the challenges posed by Washington’s strategy demands even greater coordination and cooperation among Chinese ministries and departments.

The implications of this high-stakes game are far-reaching, with potential consequences for regional stability, global trade flows, and the balance of power in Asia. China must navigate these treacherous waters while also contending with domestic pressures to prioritize economic growth and social stability over military expenditure and international engagement. The Biden administration’s strategy has already sparked concerns among Asian nations about a new Cold War or even a hot conflict.

A coordinated response that leverages diplomatic relationships with neighboring nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian states, could help China counter US pressure. Strengthening coordination among maritime authorities and building credible deterrence will be crucial in this effort.

As Beijing weighs its options and considers how to respond to US pressure, it must also think ahead to the potential consequences for regional stability and global trade flows. The Biden administration’s strategy has already sent shockwaves through the region, but China’s response will determine whether this high-stakes gamble pays off or backfires catastrophically.

The fate of Asia’s maritime chessboard hangs precariously in the balance. As Beijing navigates these treacherous waters, it must prioritize coordination and cooperation among its maritime authorities while also thinking ahead to the long-term implications of Washington’s strategy for regional stability and global trade flows. The clock is ticking - and China has a critical choice to make.